America's Future · 80th Anniversary · ONDCP showcase
Overdose Forecast
Leading indicators forecast where overdose surges are likely in the next two weeks — ranked, with a confidence band and the driving factor — so naloxone and outreach move before the spike, not after. Forward-looking and aggregate only.
Regions tracked
8
Surge-likely (≥70)
3
Data basis
Sample / aggregate
Forecast board — highest forward risk first
pre-position the worst-predicted region first| # | Region | 2-wk forecast | Confidence | Top driver | Open |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cedar Falls | 100%Surge likely | High(99–100) | EMS naloxone uses | Detail → |
| 2 | Old Mill | 89%Surge likely | High(88–90) | EMS naloxone uses | Detail → |
| 3 | Riverside | 84%Surge likely | High(83–85) | EMS naloxone uses | Detail → |
| 4 | Fox Hollow | 53% | High(50–56) | EMS naloxone uses | Detail → |
| 5 | Harbor Point | 49% | High(47–51) | ER overdose visits | Detail → |
| 6 | Glenmoor | 32% | High(30–34) | EMS naloxone uses | Detail → |
| 7 | Lakeview | 19% | High(15–23) | EMS naloxone uses | Detail → |
| 8 | Pine Bluff | 5% | Low(0–21) | EMS naloxone uses | Detail → |
EMS = naloxone administrations · ED = overdose ER visits · Strip = fentanyl test-strip positivity · Prior = recent losses. No individual is tracked; the model and weights are open.
Open methodology — every weight in plain sight
A transparent weighted model turns aggregate leading indicators into a 0–100 two-week forward risk score. The heaviest-weighted input names the driver. No person-level data exists anywhere in this pipeline.
| Indicator | Weight | Reference ceiling |
|---|---|---|
| EMS naloxone uses | 0.9 | 60 |
| ER overdose visits | 1.1 | 40 |
| test-strip positivity | 0.8 | 50 |
| recent losses | 4 | 10 |
- score = min(100, round(Σ(value × weight) / 1.4))
- surge flag raised at score ≥ 70
- confidence = 0.6 × data completeness + 0.4 × indicator consistency; sparse or contradictory inputs widen the band (up to ±25) so we never imply false precision
Tamper-evident snapshot
Anchor the current board into a hash chain so a forecast on record can't be quietly changed later. Aggregate outputs only.
$ forecast snapshot — not yet run this sessionpress “Anchor forecast snapshot” to write a hash-chained run